THE MAJORS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :
EUR/USD - 1.2677
USD/JPY - 118.11
Dollar gained nearly 200 pips against Yen and its on the way to test the hardest resistence at 118.15-118.28. Above this 118.8 will be the next crucial resistence. If this pair cross all the levels that i mentioned then it test the higher levels of 119.4 and 121.38. As trading near to the 8 year bear trendline i feel some more fall will occur on this pair. Everything dependes on 116.08 level. 116.08 is the reversal level for this pair. If it holds the 116.08 level then further rise will be on the cards. Another heavy resistence will come at the 118.88 which is 78.6% fibo of 121.38-109.
GBP/USD - 1.8724
Still 1.8600 level is very much in underthreat, for time being it made the bottom of 1.8633 just shy of 33 pips and closed at 1.8724 as you can see long lower wick. Still the bottom of 1.8633 is not confirmed for retarce of the fall from 1.9074 after the galloping rally from the level of 1.8603 to 1.9074. Well the rally from 1.7251 April 06 to 1.9144 in Agust 06 is stil in intact and therez no fear for this rally as long as it stays above the 1.8420 which is 61.8% of 1.9144-1.7251. As of now the rally from 1.8177 to 1.9144 is still holding and its threatning to test the low. 1.8605 which is 50% fibo of 1.9144-1.8177 and trading below the 1.8744 which is 61.8% fibo of 1.9144-1.8177. The next strong support lies at 1.8546 and then at 1.8420. Even 1.8596 is nothing but the 38.2% fibo support of 1.9554-1.7047.
USD/CHF - 1.2502
USD/CHF falled from 1.2623 to make the low of 1.2292. This pair need to cross the 1.2569-1.2595-1.2623 to terminate the Traingle formation. Here i call further weakness for Swiss Francs on Dollars. Breaking the Triangle it test the 1.2715, as of now its testing the 50% fibo of 1.3196-1.1948 which is at 1.2570 and after 1.2715 then it the level of 1.2800.
Taking the bigger picture of this pair whole fall from 1.3283 has completed at 1.1919 already and subsequent rebound from 1.1919 to 1.2594 represents part of a larger consolidation. USD/CHF then turned sideway and trade inside established range between 1.2182 and 1.2620. with 55 days EMA staying essentially flat. As long as USD/CHF is limited cluster resistance of 1.2594/1.2620, medium term bearishness still holds and further weakness could still follow to retest 1.1919 low. However, a break below 1.2182 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1919 to 1.2594 at 1.2177) is needed to confirm underlying weakness first. Otherwise, the current fall could just be part of an extended consolidation which will further gyrate inside established range. But firm break and sustained trading above this resistance zone of 1.2594/20 will bring much stronger medium term rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1919 at 1.2762 first). Weekly RSI just crossed the mid-point level.
EUR/USD - 1.2677
EUR/USD has turned sideway since reaching 1.2978 in early June and since then, price actions have been choppy and outlook has turned mixed. And the situation got worse after the rise from 1.2449 has failed to break through 1.2978 and reached 1.2939 only. EUR/USD's correction from 1.2978 was held by 38.2% retracement of 1.1639 (2005 low) to 1.2978 (2006 high so far) at 1.2467. Retreat from 1.2939 is also held by 61.8% retracement of 1.2457 to 1.2937 at 1.2628. This is still maintaining the possibility that a medium term top is not formed yet. We'll hold on the the view that on the downside, break of 1.2630 cluster support will shift favor back to the case EUR/USD is still bounded in a larger scale consolidation that started from 1.2978 which should be followed by retest 1.2457 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.2978 at 1.2467). But even in such case, medium term bullishness remains as long as such consolidation is contained by 1.2322 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.2978 at 1.2309) On the upside, above 1.2829 will turn focus back to 1.2978 resistance. But still, a firm break above 1.2978 is needed to confirm medium term up trend from 1.1639 has resumed for 78.6% retracement of 1.3668 to 1.1639 at 1.3234. Otherwise, further choppy consolidation could still follow. Now everything is depend on the 1.2630 level. If it holds then good or else see the level of 1.2560
USD/JPY - 118.11
Dollar gained nearly 200 pips against Yen and its on the way to test the hardest resistence at 118.15-118.28. Above this 118.8 will be the next crucial resistence. If this pair cross all the levels that i mentioned then it test the higher levels of 119.4 and 121.38. As trading near to the 8 year bear trendline i feel some more fall will occur on this pair. Everything dependes on 116.08 level. 116.08 is the reversal level for this pair. If it holds the 116.08 level then further rise will be on the cards. Another heavy resistence will come at the 118.88 which is 78.6% fibo of 121.38-109.
GBP/USD - 1.8724
Still 1.8600 level is very much in underthreat, for time being it made the bottom of 1.8633 just shy of 33 pips and closed at 1.8724 as you can see long lower wick. Still the bottom of 1.8633 is not confirmed for retarce of the fall from 1.9074 after the galloping rally from the level of 1.8603 to 1.9074. Well the rally from 1.7251 April 06 to 1.9144 in Agust 06 is stil in intact and therez no fear for this rally as long as it stays above the 1.8420 which is 61.8% of 1.9144-1.7251. As of now the rally from 1.8177 to 1.9144 is still holding and its threatning to test the low. 1.8605 which is 50% fibo of 1.9144-1.8177 and trading below the 1.8744 which is 61.8% fibo of 1.9144-1.8177. The next strong support lies at 1.8546 and then at 1.8420. Even 1.8596 is nothing but the 38.2% fibo support of 1.9554-1.7047.
USD/CHF - 1.2502
USD/CHF falled from 1.2623 to make the low of 1.2292. This pair need to cross the 1.2569-1.2595-1.2623 to terminate the Traingle formation. Here i call further weakness for Swiss Francs on Dollars. Breaking the Triangle it test the 1.2715, as of now its testing the 50% fibo of 1.3196-1.1948 which is at 1.2570 and after 1.2715 then it the level of 1.2800.
Taking the bigger picture of this pair whole fall from 1.3283 has completed at 1.1919 already and subsequent rebound from 1.1919 to 1.2594 represents part of a larger consolidation. USD/CHF then turned sideway and trade inside established range between 1.2182 and 1.2620. with 55 days EMA staying essentially flat. As long as USD/CHF is limited cluster resistance of 1.2594/1.2620, medium term bearishness still holds and further weakness could still follow to retest 1.1919 low. However, a break below 1.2182 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1919 to 1.2594 at 1.2177) is needed to confirm underlying weakness first. Otherwise, the current fall could just be part of an extended consolidation which will further gyrate inside established range. But firm break and sustained trading above this resistance zone of 1.2594/20 will bring much stronger medium term rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1919 at 1.2762 first). Weekly RSI just crossed the mid-point level.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 5:18 PM
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