Thursday, March 08, 2007

USD/JPY - 4 HRS CHART



USD/JPY's rebound from 115.54 continues today and extends to as high as 117.40 in early USD session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 116.53 minor support and further rise should be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 117.58). But still, upside of this recovery is expected to be limited by 117.80 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13 at 117.82) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 115.54 will indicate that the consolidation from 115.13 has likely completed recent fall from 121.61 should have resumed for 114.41 support.
In the bigger picture, sustained break of mentioned medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87, lower channel at 116.78 now) indicates that the whole medium term up trend form 108.99 has already completed at 122.17. With the corrective nature of the rise from 108.99, this will swing favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The current fall should then represent the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first. Break will encourage with further medium term weakness to retest 108.99 (06 low).
On the upside, sustained break of 117.80 will indicate the fall from 122.17 could have already completed. In such case, short term outlook will be turned neutral and expect some choppy consolidation to follow. But still, another fall is in favor after finishing such consolidation.

EUR/USD - 4 HRS CHART



EUR/USD's rebound from 1.3070 was limited at 1.3185, by 61.8% retracement of 1.3258 to 1.3070 at 1.3186. Subsequent sharp retreat indicates an intraday top is formed at 1.3185 and further retreat could now be seen towards 1.3108 support. But still, as long as this 1.3108 support holds, we'd expect the rebound from 1.3070 to extend further. Break of 1.3185/6 cluster resistance will encourage further rise to retest 1.3258 high.
However, break of 1.3108 will indicate that the rebound from 1.3070 is completed and will put this low back into focus again. And as discussed before, sustained break of 1.3078 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2911 to 1.3258 at 1.3085) will warn that whole rebound from 1.2865 has already completed at 1.3258, after being limited by 78.6% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3257 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Also, that will complete a short term head and shoulder top too. Focus will then be back on 1.2939 support.