EUR/USD - MONTHLY CHART

A DIVERGENCE AT OVERBOUGT REGION...

OR A FALL IS EXPECTED IN WEEKS/MONTHS...

I'd taken this pair for linger picture view. Well then decline from 1.4535 to 0.8225 is already over. So the rise from 0.8225 to 1.3665 is the one singe impulse wave here call it is as Wave 1 or Wave A and 1.3665 to 1.2062 is the Wave 2 or Wave B and the current rally is either the Wave 3 or Wave C. To get the confirmation EUR/USD need to break the 1.3665. A break of 1.3665 will confirm that we're in the Wave 3 and not C, and the Wave 3 rise will take us to 1.4535. On Monthly RSI you can see the negative divergence at the overbought region. Even on Weekly chart you can see a huge negative divergence at overbought regions. All this Monthly and Weekly RSI divergence is signalling that EUR/USD will fall, i say it make take the big tank.

GBP/USD - 4 HRS CHART
KEY RESISTENCE AT 1.9728

Cable's recent ongoing consolidation is the part of Wave 4 which began at 1.9728 and it got ended at 1.9546 it signalled the bottom of 1.9546 when we saw a huge rebound occured. Here i see that Wave 5 had already began at 1.9546, a break above 1.9728 will resume Wave 5 further to 1.9914. 1.9914 is the multi year resistence, this is where the Wave 5 might end and then resume the corrective wave for this 5 wave up. Unless we dont see a 1.9728 breakout then we'll sit in the further consolidation.

MARUTI UDYOG - WEEKLY CHART
CORRECTIVE WAVES EMERGING...

On weekly charts, Maruti completd its 5 Wave upside which began at 156 in July 03 atthe time of new listing and made the top at 991 which is the top of Wave 5 on October 06. Now this stock is geting into the Corrective Wave for the 156-991 rise in the form of A-B-C. The decline from 991 to 755 is the Wave A, but the decline from 991 to 755 is not over yet. A move above 845 will emerge the Wave B which will correct the Wave A. So in the little bit longer picture i bet the ongoing corrective wave will might truncate at somewhere near 670 and then we'll see the larger uptrend. 670 will be the bottom of Wave C.

EUR/GBP - 60 MIN CHART
A CHOP TRADE BETWEEN 0.6809 & 0.6754...

This pair struck in chop trade between 0.6809 and 0.6754 for the last 1 week. Either side breakout will confirm the trend. A break below 0.6754 will lead the way to test the 0.6990. And a break above 0.6809 will thrust the bull to kiss the 0.6870.

NZD/JPY - 4 HOURS CHART
82.22 HOLDS THE STRONG SUPPORT...

From the low at 77.41, the pair has traced out an A-B-C correction with the C wave consisting of 5 waves itself. This could also be waves 1 through 3 of a larger advance. A decline below 82.22 suggests that the rally from 77.41 was indeed corrective and that the larger trend is down. If the 82.22 holds then it'll lead upto Wave 1 through to Wave 5.

AUD/CAD - 4 HOURS CHART
WAVE 5 TOP IS NOT CONFIRMED YET...

AUD/CAD made the strong 5 wave up which began at 0.8117 in June 06. Current high of 0.9449 which i labeled as the top of Wave 5, but not confirmed yet. A break below 0.9264 will confirm the 0.9449 is the Top of Wave 5 and it'll lead to the 0.9048 as the Wave A where itll begin the corrective wave from 0.8117 to 0.9449. If it cracks 0.9449 will lead upto further extension of Wave 5 and it'll test 0.9600 mark.

HINDUSTAN LEVER
WE'RE IN THE DOWN WAVE 4...

Currently HLL is in the Wave 4 which is correcting upper for the downward Wave 3. 5 Wave down started in late september 06 at 262 level, Wave 3 got truncated at 168 which is the 03/08 low. Currently HLL retraced the 38.2% fibo of the Wave 3 which is at 201, if it holds then it'll give enuf power to kiss the 221 this is the level where i label as the termination for the Wave 4 andthen we'll have a Wave 5 where it can take us the downside. And i target it as 168 level.

SENSEX 30

ARE WE EXPECTING WAVE B TO START...

Sensex is offering heavy resistence at 13400 despite of closing the gap. Fo the last few days the Sensex is just hovering around the 13235 which is the 38.2% fibo resistence of the 14723-12316 decline. Unless we see the Sensex to sustain above the 13235/13400, Wave B wont get underway and we'll stuck in the Wave A. Currently the Sensex made the bottom at 12316 where i label it has the end of Wave A. So possibly we're into the Wave B. So here i can suspect this raaly might take us to the level of 13800 or even 14200 (which is the 61.8% and 78.6% fibo resistence of 14723-12316 decline). Well the support comes at 13072/12965 here it formed the gap. Then the next one is at 12460 which is the 38.2% fibo support of 8799-14723 rise. And the last major support comes at 12316 which is the 03/16 low. Daily indicators like RSI is just hovering around its mid-point level and Daily CCI is just getting to dip below from the extremes to set the sell signal. Andin the coming days we might see some heavy resistence or some more consolidation, Bollinger Band's upper band is keep continuing the vertical fall and its getting closer to 13400. So over all we're in the 5 Wave up correction, labelled as Wave A-B-C, in that we might got rid of the Wave A, andmost probably we're into the Wave B, still not confirmed. On the weekly chart Sensex formed Piercing Line pattern.

NZD/JPY - 4 HRS CHART
A TREND REVERSAL IS POSSIBLE...

NZD/JPY rally has extended one as it is similar to the NZD/CHF pair. Here to we'e seeing the 3 wave correction to the 85.82-77.41 decline. This pair is already made the top at 84.31 this is the level where the rally from 79.24 will equal the 77.41-82.22. 4 hrs RSI hovering at 70 mark quite similar to NZD/CHF pair and resisting at 84.31 will pay the way to the end of 3 wave correction. Now the key focus will be on 83.56, the strong support and 84.31 the key resistence. Any thing above the 84.31 will expose the 85.20 which is th 1.618% fibo resistenc of 77.74-82.22 rise.

NZD/CHF - 4 HRS CHART
A POSSIBLE REVERSAL ON THE CARD...

NZD/CHF rally has extended past the 0.8653. So now focus will be on 0.8687 (cluster top). This is where the rally from 0.8311 will equal the 0.8196-0.8563 rally. The level of 0.8687 and 4 hour RSI hovering around 70 mark is signalling the ending of a 3 wave correction of the 0.8778-0.8196 decline and possibly it can give a similar decline. So the turning point level is 0.8622 and then at 08653 which to be believed as the strong support for this pair.

AUD/JPY - 4 HRS CHART
INSIGHT OF WAVE C TERMINATION...

The AUDJPY continues to rally in what we believe is the end a 3 wave correction that began at 88.48. The rally is taken out the level where the A wave would equal the C wave (94.67). So here i target the 95.91 is the level where the Wave C might makethe top. 240 minute RSI has been oscillating near the overbought level of 70 as well. A decline below 92.72 would signal that the reversal is underway. At this point, the upside looks limited but a rally above 96.43 would destroy the reversal picture.

AUD/CAD - DAILY CHART
THE STRONG TOP AT 0.9449

The AUDCAD rally from .9048 may have or may not completed a 5 wave bullish sequence that began in June 2006 at .8117. The high made yesterday at .9449 is divergent with oscillators on the daily, which support a turn. If the 0.9449 is truly the top of the Wave 5 then in the coming days or weeks thispair might test the 0.9048 level.

USD/CHF - DAILY CHART
WAVE 5 WILL COME SOONER...

This big decline is likely the C wave of an A-B-C decline from 1.1879. 1.1512 is where the C wave decline would equal the A wave decline. Daily RSI is nearing oversold territory and CCI (daily) is below -100. The pair is likely to chop lower to test the support near 1.1563/1.1539 before a major rally attempt. Which i consider has the Wave 5. First i need to see the Wave 4 truncated.

EUR/CHF - 4 HRS CHART
FORMING ASCENDING TRIANGLE...

This pair take the big fall from 1.6289 to the low of 1.5930. Eversince making the low of 1.5930 this pair finding stiff resistence at 1.6200. After making the low 1.5930 this pair is forming the Ascending Triangle pattern on 4 hrs chart. Well the key point to this pair is trading a little bit above 1.6151 which is the 61.8% fibo resistence of the fall from 1.6289-1.5930. On 4 hrs RSI you can see the Divergence at the overbought region, here i suspect it might struggle to overcome the 1.6200 level. Well once the 1.6200 is taken out it'll boost to kiss the level of 1.6289.

EUR/JPY - 4HRS CHART
POTNTIAL TARGET OF 157.72...

The EURJPY rally has extended past the 3/12 high at 155.75 so focus is now on 157.72. This is where the rally from 152.66 will equal the 150.74-155.75 rally. A rally to 157.72 would possibly complete a 3 wave correction of the 159.61-150.74 decline and give way to a similar decline. The short term bullish scenario remains intact as long as the 3/19 low at 154.78 remains solid.

GBP/USD - 4 HRS CHART...
WAVE 3/C TOP LIKELY TO BE AT 1.9675...

The Cable rally has extended past 1.9507 and tested the 78.6% of 1.9675-1.9184 at 1.9569. As long as price remains below 1.9675, the rally from 1.9184 can be classified as an A-B-C correction. However, the retracement is deep and price needs to turn lower very soon for a bearish outcome to remain favored. A rally above 1.9675 would suggest that the decline from 1.9915 was corrective and that price is headed to a new high (above 1.9915). The bullish structure remains intact as long as price remains above 1.9436.

USD/CAD - 4 HRS CHART
PAIR TAKES THE TUMBLE...

This pair take the tank by nearly 150 pips. Previously i said that this will emerge int0 3 wave formation say Wave A,B and C.Now the fall from 1.1786 is the Wave C. As per my calciulation the Wave C termination points comes at 1.1639 (1.1786-(1.1825-1.1678). The current tumble made my calculation wrong and it made thecurrent bottom at 1.1624. The next big support comes at 1.1563

NZD/USD - 60 MIN CHART
ON ITS THIRD WAVE OR WAVE C...

This pair is lookingvr extreme bullish on 60 min chart, may be in Wave 3 or Wave C rally that began at 0.6953. n this case, i look for the NZD/USD to atleast challeng 0.7106 (0.6953+(0.6984-06831) before a setback takes place. Remaining above .6943 is key for the near term bullish case.

EUR/USD - 60 MIN CHART
LOOKS PRETTY VULNERABLE...

This pair made strong top at 1.3338 and ever since making the top now it looks vulnerable on 60 min charts. As long as it holds 1.3275 everything will be ok for this pair and even it can break the 1.3338. Well 1.3275 is the cluster support (23.6% fibo support of 1.3338 to 1.3086 at 1.3279). A move down below the aforementioned level it'll retrace the rally and it'll fine the support at 1.3243 which is the 38.2% fibo of 1.3338-1.3086. And the next support comes at 1.3215 which is th 50% fibo suport of 1.3338-1.3086 and then the major one at is at 1.3184. Testing the low of 1.3086 is seem to be far away, coz tomorrow we're having a Fed interest rate meeting. To test the 1.3086 we need some hwkish stance from Bernanke. 60 Min RSI floating below its mid point level. 60 min MACD is also hovering below its mid-point level. Well on top of the chat you can see the small Descending Triangle pattern.

EUR/CAD - 60 MIN CHART
A STRONG SUPPORT AT 1.5600

This pair having a strong support at 1.5600 and it is the 23.6% fibo support of 1.5338 to 1.5682. Well 1.5682 is the cluster resistence (1.618% of 1.5535 to 1.5338 at 1.5654) where i label it has Wave 5, but still no confirmation. A break below 1.5600 will signal the Wave 5 to at 1.5682. The next support comes at 1.5567 which is the 61.8% fibo support of 1.5496-1.5682 (on charts see the end of W4 to W5 top).

AUD/USD - WEEKLY CHART
A HUGE BREAKOUT EXPECTED...

AUD/USD pair is about to ready break the huge psycological barrier of 0.8000 level. On the Weekly chart still within the Ascending Traingle. Here in this week i'm expecting a huge breakout from this pair. A break above the 0.7978 will test the resistence at 0.8008 (2003 high) and then at 0.8215 a December 96 high. Or might be we see some violent moments here before we see the 0.8000 levels.

GBP/USD - 60 MIN CHART
WILL WE SEE 1.9181 IN THE NEAR TERM...

On the hourly chart, Cables already completed its 5 wave formation in the face of Downside i call it as a 5 Wabe Bear market, and then we've a Corrective wave for this entire fall from 1.9671 to 1.9181. In the meantime even we saw a Wave A and Wave B also. Earlier i'd predicted that Wave C might make a top at 1.9487 which is the 61.8% fibo resistence of 1.9671 to 1.9181 but the rally extened upto 1.9502. In the order to get the top of Wave C, it need to crack the 1.9395. If the 1.9502 is taken out then it'll try to make the top at 1.9566 which is the 78.6% fibo resistence of 1.9671-1.9181.

USD/JPY - 60 MIN CHART
TRIANGLE PATTERN STILL INTACT...

USD/JPY pair is still trading within its Symetrical Traingle Pattern on 60 min chart. Now we're in the Wave D, after completingthe Wave C at 117.74. Breaking the 116.51 will resume (continuation) the Wace D where is started at 117.74 (the end of Wave C). 116.51 is the 61.8% fibo support of the 115.76-117.74 (Wave C). Well after completing the Wave D, then it resume the last upward rally in the form of Wave E and then it'll test the 115.16 where the 5 wave formation begins. A break of 116.51 and 116.40 (a 61.8% fibo support of 118.47-115.16) will be confirmed the ending of th Wave D and i it holds then supporting trendline then Wave E will resume...

USD/CHF - DAILY CHART
HEADING TOWARDS 1.1882 AND FORMING DESCENDING TRIANGLE...

Just couple of days back SNB hiked the 25bps rate to 2.25% and they're pretty much hawkish and by June they'll hike one more time. A rate hike and SNB hawkish got triggered the very important support of 1.2108 and then next strong support at 1.882 and at the same time its forming Descending Triangle pattern on daily charts. So now the key resistence is at 1.1246 which is the 38.2% fibo of 1.1882 to 1.2570. Daily CCI is clearly indicating the further strength in the CHF.

UTI BANK
Wave B is notTerminate Yet...

This stock take the tank from 615 to 399 and from their it retraced 50% of that fall at 507 and currently closed below 481 which is the 38.2% fibo of 615-399. So on the way i might retest the 399 level. 399 will be tested when it moves down below the 451hich is the 50%ibo support of the rise from 399-502. Bollinger Band given sell signal on daily charts, RSI is still below the mid-point level ad CCI is the one indicator which is +ve side. I recommend to buy this stock whenit overcomed its 50 and 100DMA (502 & 481). In point o Elliott Wave already its completed the downtrend leg of 615 at 399 now its makng the Wave B which is the corrective wave of the Wave A, still i havent got the confirmation of the Wave B termination, if it moves down below 462 then Wave B is teminated at 502 and it'll complete the Wave C at 399 levels...

AUD/NZD - DAILY CHART
A INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN...

The AUDNZD continues to work higher from an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The “shoulders’ are at 1.1143 (12/27) and 1.1141 (2/26)and "head" is at 1.1052 (1/29). From an Elliott wave standpoint, the recent rallies and decline may be a series of 1st and 2nd waves. In this instance, a 3rd wave would follow (potentially a strong rally). A break above 1.1477 exposes the October high at 1.1661. Short term support is at the 3/11 low at 1.1238 but price needs to remain above 1.1123 in order to keep the bullish bias at the forefront.

USD/JPY - THE COMPLETE ANALYSIS...

USD/JPY's sharp fall from 121.61 extended further to 115.13 last week initially but downside was contained there. Subsequent rebound has accelerated towards the end of the week and USD/JPY has risen to as high as 118.37 to close the week strongly. From a short term angle, break of 117.80 resistance confirm a short term low is already made at 115.13 and hence further rebound should be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13 at 119.48 as long as USD/JPY stays above 117.18 support.

In the bigger picture, our view remains unchanged even though the current rebound is stronger than we expected. Previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. Weekly MACD's stay below signal line is still supporting this. The corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

Hence, i'll pay close attention to short term reversal signal as USD/JPY approaches 119.48 fibo resistance. But still, clear reversal pattern needs to be formed or a break below 116.88 resistance turned support is needed to indicate the completion of rebound from 115.13 first. Otherwise, further rise cannot be ruled out.

On the upside, decisive break of 119.48 fibo resistance will argue that the price actions from 122.17 is developing into large range consolidation instead. A retest of 122.17 high could be seen in such case. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

USD/JPY - 4 HRS CHART


USD/JPY - DAILY CHART


USD/JPY got heavy resistence at 122.17 which is the 61.8% fibo resistence of the fall from 135.19 to 101.65.


USD/JPY - WEEKLY CHART

USD/JPY - MONTHLY CHART

EUR/AUD - 5 MIN CHART
A BREAKOUT EXPECTED...

Making a smart recover after the fall from 1.6895 to 1.6763 (132 pips). Now its keep resisting at 1.6820 which is the cluster resistence (38.2% of 1.6895-1.6763 at 1.6813). Once the breakout occured it'll test the resistence of 1.6845 and confirms the fall from 1.6895 to 1.6763 is terminated. And the support lies at 1.6794/92 and then at 1.6778 and then the major one at 1.6763.

GBP/JPY - 4 HRS CHART
WAVE STRUCTURES...

The 4th wave correction that began on 3/5 at 221.10 is nearing an end. As always, corrections unfold in 3 waves (except for triangles) and this correction is clearly a “3”. Wave C of the correction (beginning at 222.85) would equal wave A (221.10-226.28) at 228.03, just above the 38.2% retracement of 238.22-221.10 at 227.62. The GBPJPY should roll over from this zone (227.60/228.00) and come under 221.10 in a 5th wave decline. Coming under 221.10 satisfies minimum expectations but a target is 217.36, which is support from the September 2006 lows. Price must remain below 232.14 in order to keep the bearish structure intact.

USD/JPY - 4 HRS CHART

USD/JPY's rebound from 115.54 continues today and extends to as high as 117.40 in early USD session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 116.53 minor support and further rise should be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 117.58). But still, upside of this recovery is expected to be limited by 117.80 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13 at 117.82) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 115.54 will indicate that the consolidation from 115.13 has likely completed recent fall from 121.61 should have resumed for 114.41 support.
In the bigger picture, sustained break of mentioned medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87, lower channel at 116.78 now) indicates that the whole medium term up trend form 108.99 has already completed at 122.17. With the corrective nature of the rise from 108.99, this will swing favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The current fall should then represent the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first. Break will encourage with further medium term weakness to retest 108.99 (06 low).
On the upside, sustained break of 117.80 will indicate the fall from 122.17 could have already completed. In such case, short term outlook will be turned neutral and expect some choppy consolidation to follow. But still, another fall is in favor after finishing such consolidation.

EUR/USD - 4 HRS CHART

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.3070 was limited at 1.3185, by 61.8% retracement of 1.3258 to 1.3070 at 1.3186. Subsequent sharp retreat indicates an intraday top is formed at 1.3185 and further retreat could now be seen towards 1.3108 support. But still, as long as this 1.3108 support holds, we'd expect the rebound from 1.3070 to extend further. Break of 1.3185/6 cluster resistance will encourage further rise to retest 1.3258 high.
However, break of 1.3108 will indicate that the rebound from 1.3070 is completed and will put this low back into focus again. And as discussed before, sustained break of 1.3078 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2911 to 1.3258 at 1.3085) will warn that whole rebound from 1.2865 has already completed at 1.3258, after being limited by 78.6% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3257 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Also, that will complete a short term head and shoulder top too. Focus will then be back on 1.2939 support.

SENSEX 30
A SHORT TERM REVERSAL ON DAILY CHARTS...

On daily charts i feel the Sensex made the botom at 12344, and is about to retrace the fall. Well on daily charts the Sensex formed the short term reversal pattern called Piercing Line and also closed the gap of 12836-12717. And also the Sensex is kissed and sustained the 12460 which is 38.2% fibo support of the rise from 8799 to 14723. So the points like Piercing Line formation daily charts, a 100 pointer gap closing andtrading above 12460 all this points towards short term reversal of the fall from 14723 to 12344. So from hereon the Sensex will facethe resistence at 13252 which is the 38.2% fibo resistence ofthe fall from 14723 to 12344, sustaining above that level will boost the confidence if the bull and it'll take us to 13988 which is the 61.8% fibo resistence of 14723-12344. But here the fall is not arrested yet unless the Sensex wontcross above the 13252. And still we're in the downtrend leg of 14723. Now the peoples can go long in Sensex woth the stop loss of 12344. So if the 12344 takes off then Sensex will fnd the support at 11761 which is 50% fib support of 14723-8799 and then 11062 which is the 61.8% fibo support of 14723-8799. Still Sensex have to close one more gap which is placed at 13383 and 13298. Even indicators like RSI and CCI all are pointing towards short term reversal.

GBP/USD
A SUPPORTING TRENDLINE INTACT...

Cablesis trading very firm thru its stronger supporting trend line which is connected from the recent low of 1.9283 ever since making a low of 1.9283 the Cable moving slowly and resisting at 1.9362 which is 38.2% fibo resistence of the fall from 1.9654 to 1.9283. Once the 1.9362 s taken out then it'll find the resistence at 1.9474 whichis the 61.8% fibo resistence of 1.965 to 1.9283. All Cable trader will wait for the out coming of BoE Interest rate meetn which is out to come at 0700EST (1200gmt).

USD/CHF

USD/CHF remains bounded in tight range below 1.2260 resistance so far. As discussed before, a short term low should be formed after USD/CHF's decline was contained at 1.2108 and rebounded with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. At this point, further recovery is still in favor as long as 1.2169 minor support holds and USD/CHF should edge higher to 1.2260 resistance. Break will encourage retest of short term falling trend line (now at 1.2324). However, upside should be limited by this resistance and bring another fall.
On the downside, below 1.2169 will encourage a retest of 1.2108 low but firm break below is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed for 78.6% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2571 at 1.2211. Otherwise, consolidation may extend further with risk of another recovery before completion.
In the bigger picture, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Firm break of 1.2268 resistance turned support confirmed that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760). Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This favors the case that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 78.6% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2571 at 1.2211 and then 1.1878 (06 low).
On the upside, even though some lengthier consolidation should follow in case of a rebound to above 1.2260 resistance, sustained break above short term falling trend line (now at 1.2324) is needed to indicate whole fall from 1.2571 has completed. In such case, medium term outlook will turn mixed and USD/CHF could turn into prolonged sideway consolidation in a wider range between 1.21 and 1.25 levels before giving a clear signal on the next move. Otherwise, further fall is still in favor after the consolidation.

EUR/USD
RSI DIVERGENCE...



EUR/USD's recovery from 1.3070 was limited at 1.3130 and weakens mildly again. But still, as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3070 low, further consolidation is still in favor with risk of another recovery towards 1.3142 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3258 to 1.3070 at 1.3142). But a firm break above is needed to indicate correction from 1.3258 has completed and bring stronger rebound towards 1.3210 resistance. Otherwise, short term outlook remains neutral.
Also, note that with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, a short term top has likely be in place 1.3258 already, after rebound from 1.2865 was limited by 78.6% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3257. Focus remains on 1.3078 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2911 to 1.3258 at 1.3085). Sustained break of 1.3078 will be the first warning that whole rebound from 1.2865 has already completed at 1.3258 and put focus back to 1.2939 support. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 1.3078 cluster support will indicate that the currently fall from 1.3258 could merely be part of sideway consolidation to rise from 1.2939.
In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.3364 has completed with three waves down to 1.2865. With EUR/USD staying within medium term rising channel (lower channel line at 1.2844 now), medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress. Current rally is being treated as resumption of this up trend. Break of 1.3296 resistance will add more credence to this view and should push EUR/USD to a new high above 1.3364.
However, a drop below 1.2939 will dampen this view and indicate rebound from 1.2865 is indeed a correction to the fall from 1.3364 only. That is, such correction from 1.3364 is still in progress and in such case, the rising channel line will be in focus again.

TATA MOTORS - WEEKLY CHART
WAVE STRUCTURE...

SENSEX 30
READY TO WHIPSAW 12800...

Sensex made Double Bottom at 12800. 12800 is the low of Dec 06and Feb 07 low. Now Sensex is inching towards to close the gapof 110 points (gap between 13408-13298). If the gap closes thenSensex will resist at 13534 which is the 38.2% fibo resistence of the fall of 14723 and 12800 and then it'll face another resistence 13988 which is the 61.8% fibo resistence of 14723and 12800. Now Sensex will hold the Double Bottom formationor not will be the question. If the 12800 holds then i expectsome consolidation happens between 14723 and 12800. Daily RSIis bottomed out at 30 levels, but Weekly RSI is just triggeredbelow 50 levels which suggesting that further weakness is stillthere. Well we are seeing the recent bull trendline has beenbroken out (pink line) which is connected thru the lows of12800-13300 and 13800. And another key point is that the sensex broken the 10 month Rising Wedge pattern (red lines). So taking the larger picture of supports, the key support comes at 12460 which is the 38.2% fibo support of the 8799 to 14723 rally and then 12250 which is the 200DMA support and then at 11062 which is the 61.8% fibo support of 14723-8799. Overall the picture looksvery doomy.

SENSEX - DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN

SENSEX DAILY CHART - RISING WEDGE


SENSEX WEEKLY CHART